Wednesday, November 08, 2006

My Prognostication Results

How smart am I? Read on.
Tom Carper won with 70.2 percent, better than my prediction of 66 percent.
As for the bonus question, we will have to see whether any write-in candidates garnered more than 0.5 percent of the vote.
Mike Castle won with only 57.2 percent, well below his customary 70 percent and shy of my prediction of 65 percent. Dennis Spivack did better than I expected with 38.8 percent.
I predicted that Michael Berg and Karen Hartley-Nagle would not combine to win more than 5 percent. Together they won 4.0 percent.
Did Castle get caught in the Democratic tide, or are voters signaling it may be time for him to step down in two years? It may be a bit of both.
DE-Attorney General:
As predicted, Beau Biden won over Ferris Wharton.
Tom Wagner won with only 53.7 percent against an opponent, Michael Dalto, who was barely visible. I had predicted 63 percent. Was Wagner caught in an anti-GOP tide, or does this result reveal some underlying discontent with the way he's done his job? I don’t know.
I got Markell’s winning percentage right with a prediction of 70 percent. Jack won 70.5%. I (along with Jason and MOT Newbie) correctly predicted that Jack Markell would post the highest statewide total. He did with 174,382 votes.
This is a remarkable result. Usually the biggest total goes to a winner at the top of the ticket (governor, senator or congressman). I don’t think it’s ever gone to the state treasurer. But Jack sent a real message with this result, which I attribute to good old-fashioned retail politics that included pizza with voters in every one of 41 representative districts and a top-to-bottom bicycle tour of Delaware.
Delaware General Assembly:
I predicted that two seats in the State House would change hands: Gerald Brady proved me right by winning in RD-4, a seat the GOP had held for three decades. I was wrong about RD-20, where Nick Manolakos beat Richard Korn. I and many others were surprised by John Kowalko’s win over incumbent Stephanie Ulbrich in RD-25. (Celia listed this one as Safe Republican.) The third Democratic pickup was in RD-33, where Robert Walls defeated Ulysses S. Grant.
As for the State Senate, I correctly predicted that no seats would change hands this year. Despite the fascination with Tyler Nixon among my blogging colleagues, Harris McDowell won easily with 64.6 percent. The only close result was Catherine Cloutier’s narrow win over Pat Morrison in the 5th Senate District. Maybe the Democratic tide did trickle down to the local level.
U.S. Senate:
I went 9 for 10 on the biggest Senate races. The one I missed is Claire McCaskill in Missouri. Props to Jason who called all ten. Dave at First State Politics predicted a net gain of only two Senate seats, understandable given that he was working for the GOP, even though it was for local candidates. It’s hard to be against you own team.
Of course it may take a while to count and recount all of the ballots in Virginia and Montana, but the only thing worse than being ahead by a narrow margin is being behind by a narrow margin.
U.S. House of Representatives:
I predicted that Democrats would gain 26 seats, Right now the number looks like 27 to as many as 32. I think I was hedging my bets a bit.
As for what it all means, we'll have plenty of time for that.


Blogger Ryan said...

I went 13 for 13 in the senate on my pics

10:30 AM, November 09, 2006  

Post a Comment

<< Home