Monday, November 06, 2006

TommyWonk's Prognostications

Anyone who’s been through a few campaigns knows that there’s a big difference between what you think will happen and what you hope will happen. So, putting aside my hopes and fears, here are my best guesses of who will win and lose tomorrow.
DE-Senate:
Tom Carper will win with 66 percent of the vote.
As for my bonus question: Despite the efforts of some bloggers to push her write-in candidacy, Karen Peterson will not garner more than 0.5 percent of the vote.
DE-AL:
Will Mike Castle win with his customary 70 percent?
No, he will make do with 65 percent.
Will Dennis Spivack break 30 percent? Yes, 34 percent.
As for whether Michael Berg and Karen Hartley-Nagle will combine to win more than 5 percent, the answer is no.
DE-Attorney General:
This is the hardest to predict. But I think Beau Biden will win over Ferris Wharton.
DE-Treasurer:
What will Jack Markell’s winning percentage be?
A smart 70 percent.
DE-Auditor:
Tom Wagner’s will win with 63 percent.
Statewide bonus question:
Who will post the highest statewide vote total (not percentage) this year?
Jack Markell with 162,000 votes
Delaware General Assembly:
Which House seats will change party hands this year?
RD-1 [typo, I meant RD-4], RD-20
Which State Senate seats will change party hands this year?
None
U.S. Senate:
How many seats will Democrats gain? 5
CT: Joe Liebermann (CFL) will defeat Ned Lamont (D)
MD: Benjamin Cardin (D) will win over Michael Steele (R)
MO: Jim Talent (R) will prevail over Claire McCaskil (D)
MT: Jon Tester (D) will unseat Conrad Burns (R)
NJ: Bob Menendez (D) will prevail over Thomas Kean Jr. (R)
OH: Sherrod Brown (D) will unseat Mike DeWine (R)
PA: Bob Casey Jr. (D) will unseat Rick Santorum (R)
RI: Sheldon Whitehouse (D) will unseat Lincoln Chaffee (R)
TN: Bob Corker (R) will win over Harold Ford (D)
VA: Jim Webb (D) will narrowly defeat George Allen (R)
U.S. House of Representatives:
The Democrats will gain 26 seats.
Come Wednesday, I will compare the predictions submitted and you will find out who's the smartest of them all.
Dave at
First State Politics has posted his rather optimistic predictions here.
If you'd like to register your predictions, you can do so in the comments or by emailing me at tommywonk@gmail.com.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Nancy Willing said...

I finished the local predictions but then hung it up for the national ones.
I think that the house and senate are going blue.

11:33 AM, November 07, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I want whatever Dave at First State Politics is smoking.

1:41 PM, November 07, 2006  

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