Wednesday, October 22, 2008


Yes Barack Obama is up in the polls, but haven't we been here before? Weren't we optimistic last time? MyDD has posted a useful comparison with 2004. This time four years ago, Bush led in three polls, Kerry led in two, and three others were tied.
The polls look good for Obama across the board, but I was particularly struck by
this breakdown from John Zogby:
Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by
only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.

Tied among NASCAR fans? This really could be big.
I know; we can't get complacent. If you think Obama is going to win then perhaps you can find motivation in the nasty campaign being waged. Or perhaps the fact that McCain is still fighting in Pennsylvania will motivate you to keep working for the last two weeks. I know plenty of folks from Delaware who are heading up to Pennsylvania to volunteer.
50 percent plus one is enough to win an election, and the Electoral College map looks pretty strong, but we should be looking to do better than the minimum necessary. Should they win, Barack Obama and Joe Biden will have to govern, and a strong win would make that easier.
To get involved, you can visit the
Delaware for Obama web page or call (302) 428-1615.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Tom -

I haven't submitted any comments since this wind power saga wound down. As we are in the political season, I know this is a quite bit off topic.

But I was wondering what your thoughts are on the possibility that Blue Water might run into financing difficulities due to the global economic implosion. After all, alternative energy projects are still considered high risk, and given the tightness of the credit markets, I could easily picture a financing problem either postponing or perhaps even killing a large wind power project such as the one Blue Water has planned for Delaware.

5:22 PM, October 23, 2008  

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