Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Reading the Tea Leaves, Updated

TPM has some interesting exit polls, including Delaware:
DE: C - 41.9, O - 55.6
If so, would Delaware represent a trend? Let's look at some other numbers:
CT: C - 45, O - 52.2 (Similar to Delaware.)
IL: C - 29.1, O - 69.6 (We knew that.)
AL: C - 37, O - 59.6 (Obama has led there.)
MA: C - 47.3, O - 49.8 (Polls have been closing there.)
MO: C - 45.1, O - 49.8 (A real battle ground state.)
TN: C - 51.6, O - 41.1 (Clinton has been ahead here all along.)
NY: C - 55.6, O - 42.2 (Not as big as Illinois.)
NJ: C - 47, O - 52.2 (Seems similar to Delaware and Connecticut.)
AR: C - 71.2, O - 25.5 (Clinton is the hometown favorite.)
Obama has narrowed the gap in polling in Delaware, New Jersey and Connecticut. If he wins all three, it would be a big story.
As for California:
CA: C - 49.6, O - 46.3
Update, 7:27 PM
What I don't know from these numbers is how the polling accounts for absentee voters. Keep some salt handy.
Update, 7:33 PM
MSNBC has some internal numbers from the Georgia exit polls, which show the expected generational effect with younger voters going for Obama and older voters for Clinton.
But the startling numbers are for white voters: Clinton won 62 to 36 among white women, but only 49 to 46 among white men.
Update, 7:43 PM
More from the MSNBC Georgia exit polls:
Obama leads among whites under 30, and is even with Clinton among whites ages 30 to 44.


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