Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Curt Weldon and the "Culture of Corruption"

The unfolding story about the FBI investigation involving Congressman Curt Weldon's daughter illustrates the dynamics of corruption as a campaign issue in the upcoming election.
While Democrats haven't been able to paint the entire GOP with the "culture of corruption" brush, in specific cases the tables have turned sharply in Montana, where Conrad Burns is expected to lose to Jon Tester, in the Texas district of Tom DeLay, in the Florida district where Mark Foley remains on the ballot and in the New York district of Tom Reynolds, whose poll numbers dropped precipitously when his complicity in keeping Foley's behavior was brought to light.
And now it's Curt Weldon's turn. CQPolitics.com has downgraded Weldon's chances of surviving the election:
CQPolitics.com is changing its rating on the Pennsylvania 7 race to Leans Democratic from No Clear Favorite.
That change from the tossup category means CQPolitics.com now views Weldon as at least a slight underdog to Democratic challenger Joe Sestak, a retired Navy vice admiral who was already running a vigorous campaign to deny Weldon an 11th House term in a district just outside Philadelphia.
A poll from Constituent Dynamics conducted a week ago demonstrates how the ground had already shifted against Weldon; it shows his challenger, Joe Sestak, leading 52% to 44%. Given the news of the last few days, it will be hard for Weldon to keep his seat in a district that voted 53% for Kerry in 2004.
The generalized stink of corruption hasn't affected all GOP candidates equally, but when a specific congressman gets tagged, the effect can be sudden and sharp. I expect upcoming polls to show further erosion in Weldon's support.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

11:05 PM, October 17, 2006  
Blogger Catbird said...

Why do I have the feeling anonymous is big on Sea Monkey futures?

2:16 AM, October 18, 2006  
Blogger Tom Noyes said...

I don't care. He's gone.

FYI: I haven't turned on word verification because I don't get much comment spam, and I don't want to make it more difficult for my gentle readers to join the fun.

8:36 AM, October 18, 2006  
Blogger jason said...


Did you get my email regarding Castle?

9:49 AM, October 18, 2006  

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