Wednesday, November 09, 2005

The ANWR Fallacy, Part 2

In Part 1, we looked at the oil reserves of ANWR and Canada. Some readers raised questions about the meaning of the statistics cited in yesterday's post. In response, I will try to refine the estimates used in this analysis. Let's compare the estimated reserves for ANWR and Canada:
ANWR: 5.7 to 10.4 billion barrels
Canada: 5.0 to 178.8 billion barrels
The difference between the low and high numbers for Canada reflects the uncertainty over extracting oil sands reserves.
Next we have to look at how quickly these reserves can be extracted. In a report from 2000, the DoE offered this estimate of the time it would take to get ANWR oil to the market:
Even with nearby production infrastructure, 7 to 12 years would be needed for lease sales, permitting and environmental reviews after approval for leasing.
Tomorrow: How much could Canadian shipments to the U.S. increase in the next 7 to 12 years.
This series is being cross-posted at tommywonk's diary at dKos. Tommywonk thanks Bill Detwiler for providing the inspiration and a great deal of research and analysis for this series.

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