Tuesday, August 10, 2010

An Earlier and Deeper Recession

The recession was worse than we thought. It started earlier, and from a lower peak than we previously calculated. The Economist has this chart showing how bad we thought it was, and how revisions to the data show that it was worse:

The revised report shows that the recession started in the 4th quarter of 2007, more than a year before George Bush left office. As for the depth of the plunge, it's the worst most of us have ever seen:

Economic activity now appears to have declined by 4.1% from peak to trough, easily outstripping the 3.7% dip observed in the downturn of 1957-58 (in 1981-82 the drop was just under 3%). The decline in real GDP in 2009 was far and away the worst annual performance since 1946, when America was dismantling its wartime economy.

1 Comments:

Blogger RDM said...

Tom, you couldn't be more wrong with your analysis on Youtube in 2008. The government's intervention is precisely why we have the problems we have. Ever since we went off the gold standard in 1971, the federal reserve has been manipulating the economy. First it was the stock market bubble, then the real estate bubble, and the next crisis is a currency crisis. With trillions of dollars in debt and trillions more in unfunded liabilities, excessive QE will create hyperinflation. Prices in the U.S. are going to go ballistic.

Paul Krugman is wrong. Robert Reich is wrong. Christine Romer is wrong. The very people that the republican and democratic presidents have taken advice from, are the very same people that did not see the current recession we are in. Furthermore, we are in a depression. The only reason you don't see bread lines, is that the federal government hands out EBT cards instead of food stamps. Section 8 is a failure. The next failure is government mandated health insurance for everyone.

Tom, you should take the time to listen to Peter Schiff and Gerald Celente. These two men "forecasted" the current problems that we have. And they are both forecasting the coming "currency crisis". The Keynesian solution has been a failure. The Austrian economic model is what the U.S. needs but will not embrace. Prepare for the coming "economic holocaust".

4:58 PM, August 22, 2010  

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