One Month to Go

With one month to go to the election, there is little doubt that Democrats are on their way to winning back the House. The National Journal just updated its top 30 (as in most hotly contested) House races; 29 are for seats held by Republicans.
We see a simliar pattern in Senate races. I count four races in which the Democratic challenger has a solid lead: Montana, Ohio, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania. Democratic takeaways are also possible in Missouri and Tennessee. In Virginia, Jim Webb has reduced George Allen's lead.
Senator Bob Menendez is the only Democrat who could lose his seat. He and Tom Kean, Jr. have been locked in a tight race; polls are split on who leads with neither ahead by more than the margin of error.
To sum up, Democrats might lose one or two seats in Congress, while Republicans have 30 or more House seats and as many as eight Senate seats at risk.
The political climate is getting rougher for Republicans. A week ago, I described how September was a bad month for the GOP. Things have gone from bad to wretched for them in the first week of October.